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REIT review: Budget nerves ease as real estate funds recover

Nervousness in the lead up to the budget saw real estate share prices drift over much of the month, before recovering in the days following the announcement, ending the month at a median fall of just 0.2%. Meanwhile, the crisis deepens at Macau Property Opportunities (MPO) with its share price plummeted after failing to garner shareholder support for emergency fund raise.

Best performing funds in price terms

 (%)
Grit Real Estate Income Group10.1
First Property Group8.1
British Land7.2
Hammerson6.6
Big Yellow Group4.3
Primary Health Properties4.1
Safestore3.7
AEW UK REIT3.5
Supermarket Income REIT3.4
NewRiver REIT3.3

Source: Bloomberg, Marten & Co

Grit Real Estate (GR1T), whose share price has tumbled 42.9% over the year on spiralling debt costs and a tough African property market – bounced 10.1% in November as it outlined progress in $200m of disposals that will reposition the portfolio and reduce its debt pile. Upgraded earnings forecast outlined by British Land (BLND) in altogether strong half-year results saw it continue its share price renaissance – it is up 12.3% this year and 21.3% over the past three months. Hammerson (HMSO) also upgraded its earnings outlook as the benefit of its years-long repositioning strategy starts to pay off. Supermarket Income REIT (SUPR) had a busy month, acquiring a bunch of assets (including its first foray into convenience stores and growing its French Carrefour portfolio) and releasing capital through the sale of lower-yielding assets into its joint venture with Blue Owl. Business rates reform announced in the budget (although still wildly complicated) was positive for retailers occupying smaller units and was perhaps behind NewRiver REIT’s gains during the month.

Worst performing funds in price terms

 (%)
Macau Property Opportunities(54.7)
Ground Rents Income Fund(8.7)
Workspace Group(8.7)
Unite Group(6.9)
Great Portland Estates(4.1)
CLS Holdings(3.7)
Picton Property(3.5)
Derwent London(3.4)
Empiric Student Property(3.3)
Town Centre Securities(3.0)

Source: Bloomberg, Marten & Co

On the negative side, Macau Property Opportunities (MPO) plunged to a new all-time low after shareholders refused to support an emergency fund raising. Shares in the company, which owns residential properties in the autonomous Chinese region of Macau, crashed almost 55% with it now unable to meet its debt obligations and its future hanging in the balance. The share prices of London office developers Great Portland Estates (GPE) and Derwent London (DLN) fell sharply in the lead up to the budget over fears that anti-business policy would hit demand for space. They staged a mini revival in the final few trading days of the month as the worst fears never materialised. Again, the two student accommodation specialists Unite Group (UTG) and Empiric Student Property (ESP), which have struck a deal to merge, suffered share price weakness as concerns mount for future demand.

Valuation moves

CompanySectorNAV move (%)PeriodComments
Target Healthcare REITHealthcare2.5Quarter to 30 Sept 25Portfolio valued at £948.3m, reflecting a like-for-like increase of 1.9%
Alternative Income REITDiversified0.4Quarter to 30 Sept 25Slight increase in portfolio value of 0.2% to £107.6m
     
British LandDiversified2.1Half-year to 30 Sept 25Portfolio values up 1.2% to £9.8bn
Picton PropertyDiversified2.0Half-year to 30 Sept 25Like-for-like portfolio valuation increase of 0.8% to £695m
Big Yellow GroupSelf-storage0.8Half-year to 30 Sept 25Store revenues up 2.3% and EPRA earnings up 7.1%
Schroder REITDiversified0.5Half-year to 30 Sept 25Portfolio valuation increased 0.7% to £481.8m
HelicalOffices0.3Half-year to 30 Sept 25Investment values fell 0.5%, while development value up 1.9%, resulting in 0.3% gain overall
LondonMetricLogistics0.2Half-year to 30 Sept 25Valuations flat, £1.2bn of acquisitions in the period boosted portfolio to £7.4bn
AEW UK REITDiversified(0.9)Half-year to 30 Sept 25Portfolio valued at £216.1m, a slight like-for-like uplift
Land SecuritiesDiversified(1.3)Half-year to 30 Sept 25Portfolio valuation of £10.8bn, stable over the period at -0.1%
Sirius Real EstateEurope(1.4)Half-year to 30 Sept 25Strong portfolio valuation gains offset by foreign currency translation of UK portfolio into euro
Workspace GroupOffices(6.8)Half-year to 30 Sept 25Like-for-like portfolio valuation down 3.0% to £2.3bn
     
GraingerResidential0.0Full year to 30 Sept 25Overall portfolio valuation up 0.7%. 12% increase in EPRA earnings

Source: Marten & Co

Valuation updates were on the whole positive, with quarterly NAV uplifts reported at care home landlord Target Healthcare REIT (THRL) and long-income specialist Alternative Income REIT (AIRE) supported by inflation-linked rises baked into lease agreements. Service office provider Workspace Group (WKP) posted a sharp fall in NAV in half-year results as lower occupancy and rental income hit valuations.

Richard Williams
Written By Richard Williams

Property Analyst

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