BlackRock Greater Europe Investment Trust (BRGE) announced its annual results for the 12 months to 31 August. The company’s NAV returned 19.2% and the share price return was 17.1%, in comparison to the benchmark FTSE World Europe ex UK Index which returned 15.8% over the same period. As at 31 August 2023, the company’s NAV total return has outperformed every other investment trust in the AIC Europe sector over one and five year periods.
Discussing the performance, manager, Stefan Gries, noted:
“European equity markets rallied over the past year despite ongoing expectations of an economic downturn. Certain economic indicators, such as purchasing manager Indices (PMIs) have looked weak, but company earnings and guidance have exceeded expectations across a wide range of industries. We believe this divergence between the top-down and the bottom-up is best explained by the aftermath of COVID-19 disruptions. Pent up demand for services and travel, improving supply chains and efforts to reduce inventories to more normal levels, have led to temporary demand weakness, de-stocking and subsequent recoveries across different parts of the market and at different times.”
Regarding the outlook, he continued:
“The noise around market moves seems to increase with every passing year. More recently, the war in the Middle East has further complicated matters and has, for now, put a risk premium on equities. As with all geographical risks, we monitor the situation very carefully.
“We make no attempt to predict to the basis point the next quarters’ gross domestic product (GDP), growth inflation or unemployment rate. Nor do we pay much heed to top-down indicators or what they may reveal about the health of the global economy. As described earlier in this report, the world is clearly in the midst of several transitions: COVID-19 to post COVID-19, inflation to disinflation, low interest rates to high interest rates. These dynamics must be considered when assessing the health of the global economy and the prospects for equity markets. Various end markets may continue to imply weak demand as inventories are run down, while others – perhaps those associated with Chinese real estate – may have more prolonged problems.
“However, assessing the economy from the bottom-up, company by company, we see no reason for investors with a reasonable time horizon to be alarmed. Household debt relative to assets is low in large economies, interest rate sensitivity is lower than in previous cycles and real wages are growing. Similarly, corporate balance sheets are strong after 15 years of deleveraging, margins remain at healthy levels and we may be at the foothills of an increase in capital expenditure spending resulting in a ‘modern era industrial revolution’. Long-term structural trends and large amounts of stimulus in both Europe and the US can drive demand for years to come, for example in areas such as infrastructure, automation, innovation in medicines, the shift to electric vehicles, digitisation or decarbonisation. We believe the portfolio is well aligned to many of these structural spending streams that should continue to support earnings in the medium to long term.
“As investors we must be forward looking, we must anticipate areas of enduring demand and identify those special companies whose characteristics enable them to capitalise on this demand and, in doing so, benefit their stakeholders and shareholders. We remain optimistic about the prospects of companies held in our portfolio.”
BRGE : Impressive returns for BlackRock Greater Europe