WPCT investors nervously await key Prothena data readout
Investors in Woodford Patient Capital Trust (WPCT) should watch for a key data readout from US-listed but Ireland-based Prothena (NASDAQ:PRTA) expected anytime in the next few weeks, which could potentially add up to 5% to the value of the trust in event of a positive result but reduce its NAV by perhaps up to 8% on a negative one. The consensus among US investors is that Prothena will see 50-60% upside for positive results vs 60-70% downside from a negative outcome in its PRONTO trial, which is officially due in the second quarter but is expected by analysts to come later this month. Prothena is WPCT’s largest holding, accounting for 10% of the NAV, although it is also held by Swiss-listed BB Biotech (BBB), with a much smaller holding at 0.3% of NAV.
The Pronto Phase IIb study study is evaluating Prothena’s lead product NEOD001 in previously treated AL amyloidosis patients with ongoing cardiac dysfunction. The study is double-blind, placebo-controlled and aims to confirm the cardiac responses to NEDO001 treatment that were observed in a prior open-label study. Cardiac response is measured by reduction in the biomarker called NT-pro-BNP. Positive results in PRONTO is expected to allow Prothena to seek conditional approval of NEOD001 in Europe.
Although Prothena has recently signed a large collaboration over its early stage programmes with Celgene (NASDAQ:CELG), much of its value still depends on NEOD001, hence the study outome is highly “binary” in nature. Furthermore, it will be followed next year with the outcome of the VITAL Phase III study of NED001 in treatment-naïve AL amyloidosis patients. This pivotal study is designed to support full global regulatory registration.
AL amyloidosis is a condition that results from dysfunction in the antibody-secreting plasma cells, which producing large quantities of the light chain component of immunoglobulin; these clump together to form amyloid, which is then deposited in various organs and causes organ damage.The Pronto trial recruited patients with AL amyloidosis who have had response to prior treatment (eg chemotherapy, autologous stem cell transplant) but still have persistent cardiac dysfunction. The placebo-controlled trial adminsters a single dose and evaluates cardiac best response based on levels of a biomarker, NT-proBNP. Prothena allowed the Pronto’s study to enrol more patients, at 129, than its originally planned 100, which should give it a good chance generating a statistically robust data if the drug is active.
Some investors argue that the timing of the recent collaboration with Celgene bodes well for the outcome of the Pronto trial, since he deal included the purchase equity in Prothena at a premium by Celgene, which must be confident of a positive result after a comprehensive due diligence review.
WPCT has not yet published its March portfolio update. It is also not clear whether it took up its share of the recent Oxford Nanopore fundraising, which accounted for 10% of NAV. WPCT did take up its shares in the NetScientific fundraising, at a cost of some £3m.
WPCT investors nervously await key Prothena data readout