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REIT review: Improving real estate sentiment reverses as Iran war risks interest rate upset

Real estate had extended its strong performance in February with a median share price uplift over the month of 1.8% and 4.3% over the first two months of the year. That came crashing down at the start of March with war raging in the Middle East. There is a growing prospect that the conflict could drag on for a long period of time, with higher oil prices impacting on inflation and jeopardising interest rate cuts. Share prices in the sector have fallen an average 6.9% since the first bombs dropped on Tehran (to 9 March), giving back all of the gains over the first two months of 2026.

Best performers in price terms

Sirius Real Estate13.9
NewRiver REIT11.3
SEGRO10.9
Ground Rents Income Fund9.1
TR Property8.7
Shaftesbury Capital7.7
Harworth Group7.6
LondonMetric7.6
Helical6.5
Supermarket Income REIT6.4

Source: Bloomberg, Marten & Co

Sirius Real Estate (SRE), which has a strong defence angle with a large portfolio of industrial space in Germany that is set to benefit from an increase in defence spending, soared almost 14% in February. Retail specialist NewRiver REIT (NRR) also posted a double-digit share price rise in the month reflecting growing sentiment towards the fundamentals in the retail sector in the UK. SEGRO (SGRO) was the third double-digit monthly riser after reporting a bullish outlook for the logistics and data centre sectors in annual results. Reflecting a more positive tone towards real estate in general before the Iran conflict, TR Property (TRY) – the only London-listed property securities trust – gained 8.7%, while some of the larger REITs including Shaftesbury Capital (SHC), LondonMetric (LMP) and Supermarket Income REIT (SUPR) made decent gains.

Worst performers in price terms

Macau Property Opportunities(21.4)
Globalworth Real Estate(12.3)
Unite Group(11.0)
International Workplace Group(10.0)
Great Portland Estates(7.2)
Derwent London(5.6)
Safestore Holdings(4.1)
Regional REIT(3.2)
Henry Boot(3.1)
British Land(1.6)

Source: Bloomberg, Marten & Co

On the negative side, Macau Property Opportunities’ (MPO’s) plight deepens after it defaulted on a loan having been unable to raise emergency funds from shareholders. Once again, student accommodation specialist Unite Group (UTG) suffered share price weakness as occupancy numbers for the forthcoming academic year continues to dwindle amid a softening of demand. Its share price is off almost 40% over the past 12 months, to the end of February. London office developers Great Portland Estates (GPE) and Derwent London (DLN) found themselves among the largest share price fallers as concerns mount around future office space requirements in an AI-dominated business landscape.

Valuation moves

CompanySectorNAV move (%)PeriodComments
Target Healthcare REITHealthcare1.4Quarter to 31 Dec 25Portfolio valuation uplift of 1.2% to £894.6m
Custodian Property Income REITDiversified0.9Quarter to 31 Dec 25Like-for-like valuation increase of 0.5% to £626.7m
Alternative Income REITDiversified0.6Quarter to 31 Dec 25Value of portfolio flat at £103.5m
Schroder REITDiversified(0.3)Quarter to 31 Dec 25Portfolio valued at £477.8m, down 0.2% over the period
Residential Secure IncomeResidential(1.1)Quarter to 31 Dec 250.2% decrease in like-for-like investment property values to
     
Shaftesbury CapitalRetail7.2Full year to 31 Dec 25Portfolio valuation increased by 6.6% like-for-like to £5.4bn
HammersonRetail6.5Full year to 31 Dec 25Portfolio valued at £3.5bn
Derwent LondonOffices2.4Full year to 31 Dec 25Capital values rose by 1.7% in 2025 to £4.9bn
SEGROLogistics2.0Full year to 31 Dec 25Value of portfolio up 1.0% to £19.0bn
Tritax Big Box REITLogistics1.2Full year to 31 Dec 25Portfolio valued at £7.9bn, a 2.4% capital value increase
Unite GroupStudent accom.(1.7)Full year to 31 Dec 25Decline in portfolio valuation of 0.5% on like-for-like basis to £6.1bn

Source: Marten & Co

Valuation updates were on the whole positive, with quarterly NAV uplifts reported at care home landlord Target Healthcare REIT (THRL) and long-income specialist Alternative Income REIT (AIRE) supported by inflation-linked rises baked into lease agreements. There were some large annual NAV uplifts reported during the month, led by retail specialists SHC and Hammerson (HMSO), as the sub-sector builds valuation momentum from historic lows. Logistics players SGRO and Tritax Big Box REIT (BBOX) also reported steady NAV progression.

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Richard Williams
Written By Richard Williams

Senior Analyst

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