Please don’t go
Following its recent tender offer, Gulf Investment Fund’s (GIF) future is at risk as the board is proposing a windup of the trust. GIF has outperformed its peers and global indices over the longer-term and offers exposure that can be difficult for some investors, particularly smaller ones, to access. Because of this, some investors might prefer to see it continue. Details of the proposed windup measures can be read on page 3.
GIF’s manager thinks that the GCC region offers one of the strongest sectoral growth opportunities within emerging markets, benefiting from an increasingly affluent population, as well as the region’s distinctive socio-economic circumstances. It adds that the growth story behind the Gulf region continues to progress, driven by favourable demographics and significant capital inflows. For instance, over $1tn in projects have been outlined for Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 initiative.
GIF has more than doubled shareholders’ capital over the past decade and has delivered the second-highest five-year alpha among some 90 Middle Eastern funds.
Exposure to growth within the GCC economies
GIF aims to capture the opportunities for growth offered by the GCC economies of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates by investing in listed (and permitted to invest in soon-to-be-listed) companies on one of the GCC exchanges.
Year ended | Share price total return (%) | NAV total return (%) | S&P GCC total return (%) | MSCI EM total return (%) |
---|---|---|---|---|
31/08/20 | (1.9) | 3.7 | (2.4) | 14.6 |
31/08/21 | 41.8 | 39.6 | 43.1 | 21.1 |
31/08/22 | 40.1 | 20.4 | 11.9 | (21.8) |
31/08/23 | 10.1 | 10.1 | (7.1) | 1.3 |
31/08/24 | (2.0) | 11.8 | 7.2 | 15.1 |
Source: Morningstar, Marten & Co
Fund profile
More information is available at the fund’s website www.gulfinvestmentfundplc.com
GIF aims to capture the opportunities for growth offered by the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) economies of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. It is permitted to invest in listed or soon-to-be-listed companies on one of the GCC exchanges. In practice, the company does not make pre-IPO investments.
GIF makes its investments through its wholly-owned, BVI-domiciled subsidiary Epicure Qatar Opportunities Holdings Limited.
GIF was admitted to trading on AIM on 31 July 2007 and moved across to the Main Market on 13 May 2011. Following a growing concentration of the share register (see page 18), on 19 May 2021 the company moved to the Specialist Fund Segment. A more diversified share register might allow it to switch back to the Main Market again.
Current remit adopted in 2017
GIF’s initial focus was on the Qatari market. In 2017, the remit was broadened to encompass the whole of the GCC region.
The investment adviser
GIF’s investment adviser is Qatar Insurance Company SAQ (QIC) and GIF’s investment manager is Epicure Managers Qatar Limited, a wholly-owned subsidiary of QIC. QIC’s investment team has total AUM of approximately $8bn. The core management team is based in Doha and manages about $1.2bn in discretionary mandates for local institutions. GIF’s manager says that having a local presence makes it easier to access companies’ management and makes them less reliant on third-party sell-side research. The team aims to meet holdings at least twice each year.
The management team is not invested in the fund, but QIC is.
Tender offer triggers wind-up
In its most recent tender offer, launched at the end of August 2024, GIF received sufficient tender requests that the remaining number of shares in issue would have fallen below the 38 million, this being the self-imposed minimum below which its directors have committed to bring forward a continuation vote. In response, GIF made an announcement on 10 September 2024 that the tender would no longer proceed and that, instead, its board will put forward proposals for the company to be wound up, with a view to either returning cash to shareholders or entering formal liquidation. GIF has said that it will publish a circular in relation to this as soon as is practicable. This will set out the board’s proposals and will include details of the general meeting where it will seek shareholders’ approval of its proposals.
A unique strategy and skilful team?
As outlined on page 14, GIF represents one of the world’s top Middle Eastern fund management teams, having generated one of the highest alpha figures over the last five years, while also outperforming global equities over the same period. There are very few Gulf-focused funds available in the UK, especially for retail investors, and the loss of GIF would further reduce investor choice.
It is possible that a lack of understanding led to selling, with two main investors picking up the stock and the share register becoming increasingly concentrated – approximately 85% of its shares are held by the Qatar Insurance Company and City of London Investment Management. This concentrated ownership, combined with the negative press surrounding the Middle East conflict, may have contributed to the widening of GIF’s discount at an unfortunate time, prompting investors to utilise the 100% tender offer.
Another consideration is that the fund’s Ongoing Charges Figure (OCF) of 1.89%, which is high by listed equity standards and may have deterred some investors. However, GIF’s long-term performance, which comes after these costs, compares favourably against peers and global markets as discussed in the performance section.
Market update
GIF’s manager thinks that the GCC region offers one of the strongest sectoral growth opportunities within emerging markets, aided by an increasingly affluent and economically active population, while also benefitting from the region’s distinctive socio-economic circumstances. The countries that make up the GCC not only have some of the world’s largest sovereign wealth funds, but are also engaged in ambitious infrastructure projects aimed at modernising their societies and diversifying their economies away from oil dependency.
A mountain of dry powder
The opportunity presented by the Gulf governments’ infrastructure spending appears to be significant. According to a study by the IMF (see figure 1), GCC nations rank among the highest globally in terms of per-capita capital stock (the total assets of a country divided by its population), reflecting the immense wealth held in their sovereign funds. However, this does not appear to be matched by the efficiency of their infrastructure, with the data suggesting that many other nations operating with more efficient infrastructure relative to their per-capita wealth.
Figure 1: Infrastructure efficiency relative to capital
Source: IMF, data uses 2023 data
The need for more efficient infrastructure not only requires better management, but according to the IMF, it also needs alignment between investment plans and national priorities, as well as multi-year portfolio planning. GIF’s manager thinks that this demand for improved infrastructure investment and planning has created long-term investment opportunities within the GCC region, something that Bijoy has long advocated (as did his predecessor, Jubin Jose). He says that these opportunities span various sectors, from conventional infrastructure companies like materials manufacturers, to recruitment firms catering to the labour needs of these projects, and even major GCC lending institutions that finance public-private infrastructure ventures. More examples of these trends and the companies Bijoy believes stand to benefit most can be found on page 9.
An Ambitious Vision
Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 project has already surpassed a $1tn valuation
An example of this infrastructure spending is Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 project, an undertaking in which the Saudi government, in partnership with private enterprises and financiers, aims to invest in projects to diversify the economy away from oil, improve social welfare, and elevate the country’s global cultural standing.
In practice, this involves dozens of major development projects across the region, from preserving and promoting key historical and environmental sites to advancing new domestic industries and constructing several mega-projects. These mega-projects are perhaps the most attention-grabbing, as they present significant investment opportunities due to their large physical scope and the substantial labour and materials required. Examples include THE RIG, a brand new entertainment district and tourist destination inspired by an oil rig; the launch of Ceer, Saudi Arabia’s first domestic electric vehicle brand; and The Line, a 34-square-kilometre linear city expected to house 9 million people. Although Vision 2030 is an ongoing initiative, current estimates value its projects at $1.3tn, with more than half already under construction.
Emerging Benefits
The GCC benefits from attractive demographics
Beyond the substantial economic investment by the Gulf states, these countries could benefit from the typically favourable demographics and consumption trends typical of emerging economies. Between 2010 and 2020, the GCC states experienced an average population growth of 19%, with half of the population under the age of 25 (as of 2021). Life expectancy has also improved, with the UN projecting an average of 75 years by 2025 and 80 years by 2050. This suggests that the GCC will continue to enjoy a highly productive workforce for decades without facing the demographic challenges experienced by many Western nations.
The Gulf nations also boast high living standards and GDP per capita. Saudi Arabia, for instance, as the largest GCC member by GDP and population, has a Human Development Index score (a numerical measure of the quality of life of a country’s average citizen) of 0.875. For reference, that figure means its closest comparable European nations are Portugal and Croatia, as both having near identical scores (the UK has a score of 0.940, ranking it 15th). Saudi Arabia’s GDP per capita stands at $33,949 (USD), placing it 36th globally, just behind Japan.
Market Consolidation
The market has rotated out of more highly valued companies
Whilst Bijoy remains optimistic about the GCC’s long-term potential, he says that the region’s equity markets have entered a phase of near-term consolidation, with investors rotating out of more highly-valued companies. He thinks that this shift reflects wider global market trends, as GCC-listed equities have been similarly affected by rising global interest rates. Bijoy observes that the profit taking has been concentrated in sectors such as healthcare, insurance, ICT sectors, which have historically outperformed the market. However, he believes this market correction is not necessarily negative, as it may be ‘healthier’ for the GCC to avoid having a few sectors dominate the region’s markets, potentially attracting capital to other important sectors, in his view.
In response to these developments, Bijoy has positioned GIF to benefit from what he believes are medium-term winners—stocks likely to perform well over the next two to three years. This includes beneficiaries of infrastructure spending, more attractively valued financials, and companies capitalising on the growing number of tourists visiting the Gulf. For instance, he comments that Saudi Arabia is currently operating at over 90% commercial office capacity, indicating the need for new office space. The Gulf has also been one of the fastest-growing regions for tourism, with the UN ranking Saudi Arabia first for international tourism growth. The Kingdom aims to attract 150 million tourists by 2030, but could surpass that target, having already reported 60 million visitors in the first half of 2024.
Investment process
A focused, stock-picking approach
The investment adviser is a stock picker; whilst GIF’s returns are compared to the S&P GCC Index, index weightings do not influence portfolio construction.
The investment universe encompasses all listed stocks in GCC markets; the fund is permitted to make pre-IPO investments, but in practice these will not feature within the portfolio.
The adviser applies a liquidity screen to the universe; in theory, the adviser would like to construct a portfolio that could be liquidated within five trading days. The remaining stocks will be modelled by the team, and the team will seek to meet management and may also source research from external analysts.
From this, a watch list of stocks that the advisers feel are attractive is constructed. To progress into the portfolio, stocks will have to be attractively valued relative to the wider market and to peers. Valuations are assessed based on the adviser’s discounted cash flow models and using recognised metrics such as EV/EBITDA, P/E, etc.
The size of an individual position depends on the adviser’s view of the balance of risk and reward offered by a stock. GIF operates with a focused portfolio of between 20 and 25 stocks. The adviser is comfortable with a single stock accounting for about 10% of the portfolio, but would not seek to have more than 15% in an individual position. The portfolio will typically include at least eight to 10 core holdings, and at least four to six lower-conviction positions.
Turnover has been high in recent years, reflecting market volatility – a number of stocks kept hitting target prices. In more normal conditions, the adviser would expect to hold a position for about two to three years on average.
The high market volatility means that the adviser is not comfortable with using leverage. GIF does not currently have a borrowing facility.
GIF does not seek to hedge its market or currency exposures.
ESG
The adviser acknowledges that there is room for improvement in all areas of ESG
A consideration of environmental, social and governance (ESG) aspects forms part of the adviser’s investment research process. The adviser acknowledges that there is room for improvement in all these areas, and the additional risk associated with any failings in these areas is factored into investment decisions. Things are said to be improving; independent non-executive directors are more commonplace but not mandated, for example. Attitudes towards greater female participation in the economy are said to be changing, too.
With respect to the environment, the region’s hydrocarbon extraction is clearly a significant contributor to climate change. These countries are well aware of this and, ahead of the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP 26), net zero emissions commitments were made by countries such as the UAE (2050), Saudi Arabia (2060), and Bahrain (2060). Qatar is aiming for a 25% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030.
Asset allocation
In our previous note, we highlighted GIF’s growing focus on Saudi Arabia, a trend that has continued throughout the year, as illustrated in Figure 5. Initially, this shift was driven by what Bijoy saw as the relatively attractive valuations of Saudi equities. However, it is now driven by Bijoy’s increasing optimism around banking and materials sectors, which he believes offer superior valuations.
This preference has also led to increased allocations in Kuwait and Oman. These allocations are partly driven by individual stock opportunities, but also by Bijoy’s view that Kuwait provides stronger macroeconomic resilience, while Qatari companies exhibit superior defensive characteristics.
Bijoy has funded these shifts by reducing his positions in energy, insurance, and healthcare stocks (reflected in his regional allocations) and by drawing down GIF’s cash reserves.
Figure 2: GIF country allocation at 30 June 2024
Figure 3: Change in GIF country allocation since 31 August 2023
Source: Gulf Investment Fund
Source: Gulf Investment Fund
Figure 4: GIF sector allocation at 30 June 2024
Figure 5: Change in GIF sector allocation since 31 August 2023
Source: Gulf Investment Fund
Source: Gulf Investment Fund
Top 10 holdings
Turnover in the top 10 predominantly reflects GIF’s increased exposure to financial and materials, with the largest new entrant being Yamama Cement.
Figure 6: GIF’s 10-largest holdings as at 30 June 2024
Stock | Country | Sector |
---|---|---|
Saudi National Bank | Saudi Arabia | Financials |
Qatar National Bank | Qatar | Financials |
Qatar Navigation | Qatar | Industrials |
Integrated Holding Company | Kuwait | Industrials |
Yamama Cement | Saudi Arabia | Materials |
Mobile Telecommunication Company | Kuwait | Communication Services |
Saudi British Bank | Saudi Arabia | Financials |
Saudi Ground Services | Saudi Arabia | Industrials |
Qatar Insurance Company | Qatar | Financials |
Commercial Bank of Qatar | Qatar | Financials |
Saudi National Bank | Saudi Arabia | Financials |
Source: Gulf Investment Fund
New entrants
Banking
GIF has increased its exposure to more attractively valued companies in the banking and materials sectors
Financials remain the largest sector weighting within GIF, though there has been a significant shift from non-banking financials, particularly insurance, towards more conventional banking stocks. Since Bijoy began his rotation towards financials at the end of 2023, several new banking stocks have been added to GIF’s portfolio, including Gulf Bank of Kuwait, Arab National Bank, Dubai Islamic Bank, and Bank Muscat.
Financials are sometimes considered the gateway to emerging market economies, as they can be the primary source of capital raising for local companies. Emerging markets generally less access to the capital sources that are more typically available to developed economies, such as public equity raising. This could make financials an effective way to capitalise on the Gulf region’s growth, as outlined earlier on page 5.
In addition, such financials could benefit from the increasing wealth of the average Gulf consumer, whether through growing demand for debt and mortgages or through more sophisticated financial services like insurance or investing. For instance, Saudi Arabian banks experienced 11% annual loan growth between 2023, a stark contrast to the 0.6% net increase in UK loans over 2023.
As mentioned earlier, GIF’s manager expects the Gulf’s infrastructure mega-projects to be a significant boon for the region’s lending institutions, as these large-scale undertakings are expected to be financed through a combination of government and private lending.
Figure 7: Arab National Bank (AB)
Source: Bloomberg
Bijoy’s preference for banks over other financial institutions reflects their seemingly more attractive valuations compared to non-bank financials, such as insurers. An example of this is his recent acquisition of Saudi-based Arab National Bank (ANB). ANB had a record-breaking year in 2023, achieving its highest nominal profits in history, up 20% to over $1.1bn, with revenues growing even faster at 25%. This performance was largely driven by growth in ANB’s core business, and the bank’s involvement as a partner in the Saudi Vision 2030 project suggests its potential strategic importance.
ANB’s growth has continued into 2024, with the bank reporting a 25% year-on-year (YoY) profit increase in the second quarter, driven by a 9% growth in loans and an 8% expansion in its investment portfolio, alongside a 30% reduction in cost ratios. This growth does not appear to have come at the expense of quality. GIF’s manager comments that ANB remains well-capitalised, with key ratios comfortably exceeding the targets set by its regulator.
Industrials & materials
Industrials and materials should be direct beneficiaries of the Gulf region’s economic growth, as these sectors encompass companies that fulfil the construction and logistics needs of its various infrastructure projects, along with providing associated ancillary services. For instance, steel demand in the Gulf is expected to reach 38 million tonnes by 2030, growing at 6.2% per annum from 2023 (by comparison, the UK consumed 7.6 m tonnes of steel in 2023), according to Jindal Shadeed, Oman’s largest private steel producer.
An increasing focus for GIF is the Gulf’s cement market, which is forecast to grow at a similar rate of 6.1% per annum until 2030. Whilst overall cement consumption in the Gulf lags behind major emerging markets like India and China, the region ranks among the highest for per-capita consumption. Saudi Arabia and Kuwait are second and third globally, respectively, in terms of per-capita cement consumption, trailing only China.
Figure 8: Yamama Cement (AB)
Source: Bloomberg
Bijoy has invested in several companies that he believes capitalise on the growth of the industrials and materials sectors, including Advanced Petrochemicals, City Cement, and Yamama Cement, with Yamama Cement being the largest position of the three. Yamama Cement, a Saudi-based cement manufacturer, produces a variety of products related to cement production. The company’s recent second-quarter results were in line with market expectations, with revenues growing 11% year-on-year, driven by higher costs of goods sold, while operating profits grew 32% year-on-year. However, net profits declined due to rising energy costs.
Bijoy says that the opportunities within the industrials and materials sectors are not limited to manufacturing and resources, though these companies frequently appear in his recent trades. He has also identified what he believes are attractive opportunities in related sectors that support the broader construction and industrial boom. For example, has recently increased his exposure to the recruitment sector, reflecting the growing labour demand driven by these developments.
Other noteworthy companies
Mobile Telecommunications Company
Mobile Telecommunications Company (Zain) is a Kuwaiti-listed telecom company serving approximately 40 million clients across the Middle East and Africa, with a primary focus on Middle Eastern nations. Zain has diversified into non-telecom businesses, such as its ownership of Tamam, a Shariah-compliant micro-loan platform.
Figure 9: Zain
Source: Bloomberg
Zain’s recent quarterly update showed revenues up 7% year-on-year and gross profits up 4% year-on-year. A significant contributor to this growth was the increased user activity during the Hajj pilgrimage, a cyclical but arguably predictable boost to revenues. This follows on from 2023, where the company reported an 8.9% revenue increase, driven by a 40% rise in revenue from its 5G division and a 123% jump in revenues from Tamam. However, net profit margins fell in 2023, from 11.7% to 8.8%, largely due to higher advertising costs and increased fees paid to Tower Co., which operates Zain’s telecom towers.
GIF’s manager says that, despite the pressure on Zain’s profit margins, the company has consistently demonstrated reliable revenue growth. It currently trades at a price-to-sales ratio of 1.0 and a price-to-earnings ratio of 11, and the manager sees it as an example of the opportunities available in the more affordable segment of the GCC market.
Performance
GIF has demonstrated substantial outperformance vs its benchmark
GIF has faced a more-challenging period in 2024, which might not be a surprise given the headlines surrounding conflicts in the region. The fund has lagged behind its benchmark over the last six months, which appears to be mainly due to relative returns over the last three months, during which the benchmark opened up a 4% lead over GIF.
Despite this recent setback, GIF has maintained a significant lead over the long term, delivering a five-year NAV total return of 114.4% and a share price total return of 110.4% to the end of August 2024. These figures comfortably outperform the benchmark’s 55.6% return. Much of this outperformance was achieved from March 2022 onwards, a period that coincides with the team’s rotation out of highly valued sectors, such as oil and gas, and into non-energy structural opportunities.
Over the past five years, the fund has more than doubled investors’ capital, outperforming the MSCI ACWI, which returned only 77.4% in the same period. GIF has even passed the much-lauded S&P 500 index, which returned 109.3% over the last five years.
Figure 10: GIF performance relative to benchmark – five years to end August 2024
Source: Morningstar, Marten & Co
Figure 11: Cumulative total return performance in USD over periods ending 31 August 2024
1 month (%) | 3 months (%) | 6 months (%) | 1 year (%) | 3 years (%) | 5 years (%) | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GIF share price | (1.5) | (7.2) | (9.1) | (2.0) | 51.2 | 110.4 |
GIF NAV | (1.6) | 3.2 | (5.0) | 10.5 | 46.8 | 116.2 |
S&P GCC Index | 1.1 | 8.1 | (0.5) | 7.2 | 11.8 | 55.6 |
MSCI EM Index | 1.6 | 5.0 | 9.7 | 15.1 | (7.2) | 26.4 |
MSCI ACWI | 2.5 | 7.1 | 10.5 | 23.4 | 18.4 | 77.5 |
Source: Morningstar, Marten & Co
GIF represents an attractive diversification option
We have previously commented on the diversification benefits that an investment in GIF could offer, given its idiosyncratic return profile historically. An illustration can be seen in Figure 12, which compares GIF’s correlation to those of major equity markets and asset classes. GIF’s diversification benefits appear to have increased since our last note, as its correlations are down across all indices except for the S&P GCC Composite. Some readers might find GIF’s low correlation to crude oil prices interesting, as this may run counter to the idea that the Gulf region’s fortunes are influenced by the price of oil.
Figure 12: GIF 5-year correlation matrix
GIF | S&P GCC Composite | MSCI ACWI | MSCI United Kingdom | Bloomberg Global Aggregate Bond index | MSCI EM | DJ Commodity Crude Oil | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GIF | 1.00 | ||||||
S&P GCC Composite | 0.89 | 1.00 | |||||
MSCI ACWI | 0.62 | 0.66 | 1.00 | ||||
MSCI United Kingdom | 0.56 | 0.64 | 0.86 | 1.00 | |||
Bloomberg Global Aggregate Bond index | 0.28 | 0.26 | 0.68 | 0.55 | 1.00 | ||
MSCI EM | 0.52 | 0.56 | 0.93 | 0.92 | 0.66 | 1.00 | |
DJ Commodity Crude Oil | 0.32 | 0.41 | 0.31 | 0.46 | -0.01 | 0.40 | 1.00 |
Source: Morningstar, as of 31 August 2024, calculated in USD
Peer group
Figure 13: Cumulative NAV total return performance in USD terms over periods ending 31 August 2024
1 month | 3 months | 6 months | 1 year | 3 years | 5 years | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GIF | (1.6) | 3.2 | (5.0) | 10.5 | 46.8 | 116.2 |
Alistithmar Capital MENA Equity | 0.7 | 9.9 | 2.6 | 27.0 | 59.3 | 146.4 |
Amundi Funds Equity MENA | 0.2 | 7.0 | (3.8) | 5.7 | 13.7 | 46.6 |
Ashmore SICAV Middle East Equity | (0.1) | 8.0 | (0.3) | 10.2 | 26.7 | 62.8 |
BankMuscat Oryx Fund | 0.6 | 8.8 | (6.4) | 9.4 | 39.2 | 87.8 |
Franklin MENA | 0.0 | 8.1 | (0.3) | 8.2 | 20.5 | 44.1 |
Magna MENA | (1.1) | 7.4 | (1.5) | 14.8 | 49.1 | 87.1 |
NBK Gulf Equity Investment | 1.0 | 8.8 | (1.7) | 7.0 | 20.4 | 56.1 |
SICO Gulf Equity Fund | 0.4 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 5.3 | 22.1 | 58.0 |
SICO Khaleej Equity Fund | (0.6) | 4.9 | (4.9) | 4.3 | 21.4 | 76.0 |
United GCC Fund | (1.0) | 3.9 | (8.0) | 6.3 | 50.9 | 101.9 |
Median | 6.2 | 7.1 | 6.8 | 16.8 | 53.0 | 86.5 |
GIF rank | 8/11 | 11/11 | 9/11 | 3/11 | 4/11 | 2/11 |
Source: Morningstar, Bloomberg, Marten & Co, GIF.
GIF sits within the AIC’s Global Emerging Markets sector. However, with no direct closed-end comparators, GIF tends to compare its returns to an open-ended peer group. The peer group that we have assembled comprises GIF’s five chosen comparators plus other funds investing in GCC equities. However, it should be noted that some of these funds may not be easily accessible by UK-based investors – SICO Khaleej Equity Fund is only registered for sale in Bahrain, for example. Although GIF’s relative performance has deteriorated over recent months, it still ranks as one of the best-performing strategies over the long term.
GIF ranks as one of the best-performing strategies over the long term
Top-tier alpha
As we have highlighted in our previous notes, GIF’s strategy has been amongst the strongest sources of alpha of any of the Middle-East-focused funds, irrespective of where they are marketed. As can be seen from Figure 14, GIF still retains its top-three rankings over five and three years. It has fallen down into the bottom half over the last 12 months, likely due to its recent spate of underperformance. However, given the multi-decade growth story of the GCC region and the inherent volatility associated with emerging market investing, some investors mey prefer to judge GIF over longer-term time frames.