“Market mispricing AI risk”
During periods of global market uncertainty, the companies held by Lindsell Train Investment Trust (LTI) and its manager, Lindsell Train Limited (LTL), have tended to see increased attention as investors look more towards businesses with durable and resilient cash flows. Some holdings, particularly consumer staples businesses, have appeared defensive amid volatility linked to the Iran war. Growing concerns around the potential impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on software and data businesses may have negatively affected LTI and LTL.
Portfolio company RELX has appeared more affected than most. LTL argues that the market’s assessment is incorrect. According to LTL, in sectors such as legal and financial, the cost of error is high, and regulatory barriers may make the datasets valuable and essential for the application of AI tools. LTI used market weakness to initiate a position in US credit scoring company FICO (which was already held in LTL’s Global strategy) in February.
Funds under management at LTL have continued to fall. The company has launched a new $200m strategy focused on international equities, seeded by its cash reserves and a longstanding client.
Maximise returns over the long-term
LTI aims to maximise total returns over the long term, while preserving shareholders’ capital. It invests in a concentrated portfolio of global equities that it has identified as market-leading and that it believes benefit from high returns on equity. It also invests in a range of Lindsell Train-managed funds and the unlisted security of its investment manager, Lindsell Train Ltd.

| Year ended | Share price total return (%) | NAV total return (%) | MSCI World Index TR (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/04/2022 | (11.5) | (4.2) | 6.4 |
| 30/04/2023 | (10.9) | 10.1 | 3.1 |
| 30/04/2024 | (19.5) | 1.8 | 18.8 |
| 30/04/2025 | 10.7 | 12.2 | 5.1 |
| 30/04/2026 | (23.6) | (17.7) | 27.0 |
Fund profile
Concentrated portfolio of 13 global equity stocks plus Lindsell Train funds
Lindsell Train Investment Trust (LTI) aims to deliver long-term total returns while preserving the real value of capital. It invests in a concentrated portfolio of 13 global companies, alongside selected Lindsell Train funds and a stake in its manager, Lindsell Train Limited (LTL). The LTL management fee for LT managed funds and other funds that LTL manages are rebated back to LTI, in order to avoid double charging of fees.
As of March 2026, global equities accounted for 62.4% of NAV, with look-through exposure to 49 holdings. The trust is benchmarked against the MSCI World Index (in sterling) but is managed independently, with an active share close to 100%. LTI was launched in 2001 and is listed on the premium segment of the main market of the London Stock Exchange. LTI’s board of directors is the company’s AIFM and receives no remuneration for this role.
Investment approach
LTL focuses on holding a small number of companies for the long term. The company states that it believes concentration can reduce risk more effectively than broad diversification. According to LTL, these businesses typically have durable competitive advantages and long histories, with the average age of LTI’s direct equity holdings being around 147 years.
LTI has helped seed LTL funds
Historically, LTI has helped to seed new LTL fund and then has benefitted from their growth. Its initial £66,000 investment in LTL has increased to £28.2m (as at the end of March 2026), peaking at 48% of NAV in 2021. Since then, it has declined to 19.8% (at end March 2026), which appear to be the result of weaker performance and reduced assets under management.
Market backdrop
War in Iran has heightened global geopolitical uncertainty
Global market uncertainty appears to have increased with the war in Iran contributing to greater geopolitical tensions and impacting the global economic recovery. Growth expectations have been lowered following the energy price shock and rising inflation, with central banks delaying rate cutting plans as a higher-for-longer interest rate narrative develops.
At the same time, investors appear to be evaluating how artificial intelligence (AI) may reshape various industries and sectors, distinguishing between potential beneficiaries and those that could be at risk of disruption.
Markets appear to have become more event-driven and volatile, with concerns about inflation, oil prices, interest rates, and geopolitics all seemingly impacting sentiment. Uncertainty related to both geopolitics and the potential impact of AI has had a significant effect on LTI and LTL’s portfolios. Both are examined here.
Geopolitical tension
Defensive stocks back in focus
It appears that the war in Iran and wider instability in the Middle East have helped to bring defensive stocks back into focus. While energy, defence/aerospace and selective commodity stocks have made substantial gains, other sectors often considered safe havens, including banking, also appear to have benefitted. LTL’s consumer staples exposure has appeared relatively resilient in recent months. Within LTI’s portfolio, beauty and personal care company Unilever was up double-digits in the year before it was reported that it was selling its food business in March (which is detailed on page 9). Mondelez and soft drinks manufacturer AG Barr were both up in the weeks following the outbreak of war.
All four companies have long-term records of durable and growing revenues and could continue to compound returns over time. In the last period of significant market volatility – at the start of 2025 when tariff uncertainty and the DeepSeek large language model (LLM) launched – LTI and LTL’s portfolio showed signs of resilience, while tech-dominated indices, including the S&P 500 and NASDAQ, declined. This is illustrated in Figure 1, which shows LTI’s NAV return relative to the MSCI World Index.
Figure 1: LTI NAV total return relative to the MSCI World Index1

The benefits LTI has previously enjoyed from its defensive positioning were less pronounced following the start of the war in Iran this year. However, this period also saw several of LTL’s data businesses come under pressure amidst a broader sell-off of software businesses.
Software sell-off
Data businesses suffered large sell-off
Following the launch by Anthropic of industry specific plugins for Claude Cowork in January – targeting particular verticals such as legal and finance – there was a period of widespread selling of data and digital platform businesses. It has been suggested that cheap AI tools could commoditise data provision, which could impact future growth prospects.
A number of LTI and LTL’s holdings appear to have been affected by this trend, including London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) and RELX.
LTL believes that the market has misjudged both companies, underestimating the long-term value of the datasets on which the new AI models depend. In sectors such as legal, risk, financial, and medical, the cost of error is considered by LTL to be high, while much of the underlying data is protected by physical and regulatory barriers, suggesting that a significant proportion may remain unavailable to large language models (LLMs). LTL believes that trusted, accurate, reference-grade data should remain valuable even as AI tools become more widely adopted.
Figure 2: RELX (GBP)

RELX, which provides services to the global scientific, legal and insurance industries, already offers AI-enabled workflow tools. According to LTL, whilst new AI applications are being developed, the value is less likely to accrue to the models themselves but more to the owners of the datasets upon which they rely.
Both RELX and LSEG are described by LTL as possessing clear data moats. RELX, for example, is reported to have amassed over 100 billion legal documents and counting, the majority of which contain proprietary content, it adds. LTL estimates that this legal data is rarely more than 1%-2% of a law firm’s cost base. It believes this data is critical to these firms and does not see it as an obvious target for cost savings.
LTL believes that investors have overly discounted the long-term earnings potential of these and other data businesses, creating a buying opportunity. As such, LTI has recently initiated a position in US credit-scoring company FICO (which is detailed on page 10).
Investment process
Investment universe of 150 companies
LTL operates within a small universe of potential investments, typically no more than 150 companies, due to its focus on heritage businesses with predictable earnings (supported by pricing power and/or intellectual property), low capital intensity and high returns on capital. LTI has maintained a concentrated portfolio since its launch in 2001, averaging around 15 holdings (currently 13).
Most qualifying companies appear to fall into a limited number of broad sectors:
- Consumer branded goods;
- Internet, media, software; and
- Financials and networks.
Bottom-up approach without reference to benchmark
The portfolio is constructed on a “bottom-up” basis, with no reference to benchmarks. Each potential investment undergoes a due diligence process, which may last several years, including meetings with management and industry analysis.
Valuation is assessed using multiple methods. LTL says that it does not rely on traditionally constructed discounted cash flow (DCF) models, but its approach shares some of the core principles of DCF, particularly in focusing on the long-term sustainability of returns of a company are considered. Companies that are identified as offering the best value are selected for inclusion in the portfolio.
ESG integration
Signatory of UN Principles for Responsible Investment
LTI’s manager is a signatory to the United Nations Principles for Responsible Investment, the UK Stewardship Code, and the Net Zero Asset Managers initiative. The manager says that it engages with portfolio companies on ESG issues, including climate change, and measures portfolio-level carbon emissions, footprint (tCO₂e/$m invested), and intensity (tCO₂e/$m sales) to assess exposure to climate-related risks.
LTL believes that companies with strong ESG standards are likely to be more durable and deliver superior long-term returns. It adds that ESG analysis is embedded in the investment process and covers environmental factors (including climate change), social, governance (including remuneration and capital allocation), as well as cyber resilience, responsible data use, human rights, anti-corruption, and reputational risks.
ESG factors influence portfolio decisions
Where ESG factors are expected to materially affect long-term prospects, they may be incorporated into valuation assumptions, particularly long-term growth rates, and may influence portfolio decisions, including whether to initiate, hold, or exit positions.
Consistent with its philosophy, LTL avoids:
capital-intensive sectors such as energy, commodities, and mining, including companies involved in coal, oil, or gas extraction; and
industries that it considers socially harmful or exposed to regulatory or litigation risk, such as tobacco, gambling, and arms manufacturing.
Active engagement with company management on ESG and stewardship issues is described as a core part of the strategy. Whilst generally supportive of management, LTL states that it will seek to influence decisions where it disagrees with company actions.
Investment policy and restrictions
LTI can invest globally across a broad range of financial assets, including equities (listed and unlisted), bonds, funds and cash, with no sector or geographic constraints. Individual holdings are limited to 15% of gross assets. It may also invest up to 25% in LTL-managed funds (subject to board approval) and may retain holdings in LTL to benefit from its long-term growth.
The company does not invest for control purposes and will not allocate more than 15% of gross assets to other closed-ended investment funds.
Exits
Low single-digit portfolio turnover rate
LTL maintains a low single-digit portfolio turnover rate, with LTI’s turnover even lower. Investments are typically held for the long term, which the company says reflects its conviction in the value of owning businesses over extended periods.
Positions are reduced or exited when certain criteria are met, such as a share price exceeding intrinsic value or a perceived erosion of competitive advantages.
Long-term holding avoids transaction fees
This long-term approach should help in keeping transaction costs to a minimum – the manager views these as a drag on capital – although the manager notes that it can require patience and discipline to look beyond short-term market fluctuations. The manager indicates that exit decisions may also be influenced by the availability of alternative opportunities that are perceived to have stronger upside potential, with the manager typically identifying two or three vetted candidates at any given time.
Asset allocation
At 31 March 2026, more than 60% of LTI’s portfolio value was invested in global equities, with LTL comprising almost 20%. Over a third of underlying portfolio revenue appeared to originate from the US (on a look-through basis including positions in LTL), while Europe accounted for a quarter of revenues and the UK just over a fifth.
Figure 3: Breakdown of LTI’s portfolio at 31 March 2026

Figure 4: LTI portfolio by location of underlying revenue at 30 Sept 20251

Figure 5: LTI holdings at 31 March 2026
| Stock/holding | Sector | As at 31/03/26 (%) | As at 30/09/25 (%) | Change(%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lindsell Train Limited (LTL) | Unlisted security | 19.8 | 24.4 | (4.6) |
| London Stock Exchange Group | Financials | 14.4 | 11.3 | 3.1 |
| Lindsell Train North American Equity Fund | LTL managed fund | 13.5 | 12.2 | 1.3 |
| Nintendo | Communication services | 11.1 | 14.0 | (2.9) |
| RELX | Industrials | 6.4 | 7.4 | (1.0) |
| A.G. Barr | Consumer staples | 4.7 | 4.0 | 0.7 |
| Unilever | Consumer staples | 4.6 | 5.0 | (0.4) |
| Diageo | Consumer staples | 4.2 | 4.4 | (0.2) |
| Thermo Fisher Scientific | Healthcare | 3.2 | 2.5 | 0.7 |
| Mondelez International | Consumer staples | 3.0 | 3.3 | (0.3) |
| Universal Music Group | Communication services | 2.6 | 3.1 | (0.5) |
| Heineken | Consumer staples | 2.4 | 2.1 | 0.3 |
| PayPal | Financials | 2.2 | 2.6 | (0.4) |
| Finsbury Growth & Income Trust Plc | Financials | 2.1 | 2.1 | 0.0 |
| Laurent-Perrier | Consumer staples | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.3 |
| FICO | Financials | 1.7 | – | 1.7 |
| Cash & equivalent | – | 2.1 | 0.2 | 1.9 |
LTI’s holdings have been discussed in previous notes (links to which can be found on page 18). This section provides information on recent events among portfolio companies and includes an update on LTL.
Universal Music Group (UMG)
Figure 6: UMG (EUR)

LTL’s investment rationale for UMG, which it bought into at the end of 2023, was explained in detail in the initiation note, and the manager comments that this has not changed. The manager believes that the Euronext Amsterdam-listed company was undervalued, and a £48bn bid for the company by Pershing Square Capital Management was announced earlier this month. The deal values UMG’s shares at €25 compared to its previous closing price of €17.05.
Assuming the transaction goes ahead, shareholders in UMG will receive €9.4bn in cash and 0.77 new UMG shares as part of the deal, which would see UMG merge with Pershing Square SPARC Holdings. This is the special purpose vehicle established four years ago to make a large acquisition, and list on the New York stock exchange. Under the transaction, 17% of UMG shares would be bought back and cancelled while preserving the company’s investment grade balance sheet, and a new dividend policy may also be adopted.
UMG’s shares have remained at lower levels since listing in 2021. Frequently cited concerns include the French conglomerate Bolloré Group’s 18% stake and the postponement of UMG’s US Listing, under-utilisation of its balance sheet, and the potential impact of AI deepfakes on music industry revenues may have weighed on performance.
The LTL team observes that whilst AI can generate large volumes of music-like content, it does not change the value of established and in-demand catalogues. According to the LTL team, UMG’s ownership of major music rights, with control of roughly a third of the world’s recorded music (ahead of the other two major players Sony and Warner), puts it in a strong position to push for better pricing from streaming platforms such as Spotify.
LTL thinks that the payout model currently used by the platforms – based on a simple pro-rata share of listening – has room to improve and expects it to evolve to allow for minimum payments or fixed-value arrangements tied to the worth of catalogues. According to the manager, this could give UMG leverage to require platforms to absorb higher content costs or raise their own subscription prices. The manager thinks that these changes may take time to be implemented because UMG needs to align terms across multiple streaming partners, but believes the direction of travel is positive.
Unilever
Figure 7: Unilever (GBP)

FTSE 100 conglomerate Unilever has been a long-term holding for LTL and a consistent presence in LTI’s portfolio. Last month, the group announced it had reached a deal to sell its food business to spice maker McCormick, creating a $66bn company with $20bn of annual revenues.
As part of the cash-and-stock transaction, Unilever shareholders will own 65% of the combined group, with McCormick owning the remaining 35%. Unilever will also receive $15.7bn of cash from McCormick under the deal terms. The transaction has been structured as a Reverse Morris Trust, a structure that allows the parent company (Unilever) to potentially minimise its tax liabilities on the disposal if it retains a majority stake in the divested enterprise.
Unilever states that the deal, which is expected to complete by mid-2027 subject to McCormick shareholder approval, will change the company from a multi-category conglomerate into a more focused beauty and personal care company. The division accounts for a large portion of group revenues and is regarded as operating in faster-growing sectors.
Unilever has been shifting its focus away from food over the past decade towards beauty and wellbeing categories, and last year spun off its Magnum ice cream holding into an independent entity.
Shareholders appeared to react negatively towards the McCormick deal, with Unilever’s share price falling since first being reported in March. LTI had reduced its position in Unilever earlier in the year, before the price weakened. The manager believes that the greater attraction of Unilever’s household and personal care portfolio has put selling pressure on the remains of Unilever’s food business. The manager believes that it is this, rather than the merits of the deal, that has negatively impacted Unilever’s share price.
FICO
Figure 8: FICO (USD)

Partly funded by the exit of Unilever’s Magnum ice cream business noted above, LTI initiated a 2% holding in US-listed credit scoring company FICO in February. It has been a constituent of LTL’s global equity portfolio since 2022, and the manager explains that the decision to add to its position followed share price weakness linked to the perceived threat from AI.
FICO has two core businesses: the credit scores segment and the software arm. LTL notes that much of FICO’s growth appears to have come from pricing power, and states that there may be further room to raise prices following what it describes as decades of undercharging. LTL believes that the scores business may still have a significant growth runway, with potential opportunities to increase pricing and adjust its charging model, as well as to capture more of the value chain. According to LTL, the software business’s shift to a new cloud-based platform has presented opportunities to cross-sell its risk and fraud prevention services.
LTL thinks that fears around AI disruption may be misplaced in FICO’s case due to the sensitivity and protection given to the underlying bureau data and the regulatory burden around the scores themselves.
Diageo
Figure 9: Diageo (GBP)

A recent development at Diageo was the announcement of the halving of its dividend. Chief executive Dave Lewis said that the company had decided to reduce the pay-out in order to strengthen its balance sheet and support long-term growth.
Lewis had been appointed earlier this year to lead the company, which owns several premium spirit brands that are among the best-selling globally, yet has experienced a marked decline in its share price since its peak in 2021. The dollar-based company declared an interim dividend of 20 cents per share in half-year results, down from 40.5 cents. Going forward, it said it would target paying 30-50% of earnings with a minimum annual dividend of 50 cents.
LTL explains that it supports the dividend cut, provided it helps protect the balance sheet and avoids actions such as selling assets. LTL acknowledges the disappointment and believes that the core long-term strengths of the business remain, citing strong brands, durable market positions, and growth potential in markets such as India.
Diageo’s share price weakness has increased recently. With the company importing a significant portion of its products into the US from Mexico and Canada, Trump’s tariffs appear to have been a headwind. Another concern for shareholders is that people may be drinking less. However, LTI’s manager thinks that the data points to a more nuanced story.
LTL
LTI’s performance still appears to be influenced by that of its largest exposure, LTL, which at the end of March 2026 accounted for 19.8% of the portfolio, down from 24.5% six months earlier. LTL has experienced investor outflows in recent years. Funds under management (FUM) at LTL have decreased to £9.8bn in September 2025, from a peak of £24.3bn in July 2021. Annual management fees make up almost 99% of the group’s total, and 80% of net profits are paid to shareholders in dividends. As such, LTL’s contribution to LTI’s revenues is significant.
One development amid declining FUM is the recent launch of a new international strategy (EAFE) focused on the developed world excluding the US, which sits alongside LTL’s four existing strategies spanning global, UK, Japan and North American equities. LTL tells us that this strategy has been under consideration for some time, but that current market valuations and growing demand for international equities made the timing particularly compelling.
Alongside the establishment of an International LLC (funded with balance sheet capital), a longstanding client also provided initial funding for the strategy through two segregated mandates. The strategy has launched with over $200m in AUM. The strategy will be co-managed by James Bullock and Ben van Leeuwen (profiles of whom can be found on page 16).
Performance
Direct comparisons with benchmarks and the global investment companies peer group may be difficult due to LTI’s investment policy and the concentrated nature of its portfolio. Figure 10 shows that LTI’s NAV has fallen over the past year relative to both its peer group and the MSCI World Index, as FUM at LTL has also declined and sentiment towards its software holdings appears to have been affected by concerns regarding AI disruption.
Figure 10: LTI NAV total return performance relative to benchmark and peer group1

Despite the weaker performance over five years, LTI’s 10-year NAV total return remains higher than both the peer group and the benchmark, as shown in Figure 11. This may reflect the contribution of LTL in prior years.
Figure 11: Cumulative total return performance over periods ending 30 April 2026
| 6 months (%) | 1 year (%) | 3 years (%) | 5 years (%) | 10 years (%) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LTI share price | (14.6) | (23.6) | (31.9) | (46.3) | 43.2 |
| LTI NAV | (19.3) | (17.7) | (6.0) | (0.9) | 262.2 |
| MSCI World Index | 3.3 | 27.0 | 58.6 | 73.9 | 254.9 |
| Peer group average NAV | 1.4 | 20.9 | 44.8 | 67.6 | 241.1 |
Peer group analysis
Figure 12: Peer group comparative data as at 5 May 2026
| Premium / (discount) (%) | Dividend yield (%) | Ongoing charge (%) | Market cap (£m) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lindsell Train | (15.6) | 7.0 | 0.80 | 120 |
| Alliance Witan | (5.5) | 2.2 | 0.47 | 4,823 |
| AVI Global Trust | (8.4) | 1.8 | 0.85 | 1,024 |
| Bankers | (7.7) | 2.0 | 0.51 | 1,313 |
| Brunner | (8.3) | 1.7 | 0.61 | 644 |
| F&C | (8.1) | 1.3 | 0.45 | 6,115 |
| Mid Wynd | (1.7) | 1.1 | 0.64 | 211 |
| Monks | (5.4) | 0.0 | 0.43 | 2,447 |
| Scottish Mortgage | 3.5 | 0.3 | 0.31 | 15,568 |
| Sector median | (6.5) | 1.9 | 0.56 | 3,585 |
| LTI rank | 9/9 | 1/9 | 8/9 | 9/9 |
Up-to-date information on LTI and its peers is available on our website
LTI is a constituent of the AIC’s Global sector, which currently comprises nine companies. LTI’s discount is the widest among the peer group, while its dividend yield is significantly higher than the peer group median, seemingly aided by its structure and revenue contribution from LTL. The ongoing charges ratio is at the top end of this peer group, which appears to reflect its small market cap (the smallest in the peer group).
Figure 13: Peer group cumulative NAV total return data as at 30 April 2026
| 6 months | 1 year | 3 years | 5 years | 10 years | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lindsell Train | (19.3) | (17.7) | (6.0) | (0.9) | 262.2 |
| Alliance Witan | 0.2 | 14.2 | 36.5 | 71.9 | 190.7 |
| AVI Global Trust | 1.4 | 13.1 | 40.7 | 88.6 | 205.1 |
| Bankers | 3.7 | 27.5 | 44.3 | 68.4 | 204.3 |
| Brunner | 5.1 | 22.0 | 42.5 | 98.0 | 214.5 |
| F&C | 3.6 | 24.9 | 55.8 | 94.4 | 242.2 |
| Mid Wynd | (8.3) | 1.4 | 8.3 | 24.3 | 143.4 |
| Monks | 0.2 | 29.3 | 52.2 | 49.1 | 254.3 |
| Scottish Mortgage | 5.2 | 35.2 | 78.3 | 46.3 | 474.0 |
| Sector median | 1.4 | 20.9 | 44.8 | 67.6 | 241.1 |
| AGT rank | 9/9 | 9/9 | 9/9 | 9/9 | 2/9 |
Dividend
Figure 14: LTI dividend history

LTI’s dividend is primarily funded by the revenue income it receives from LTL, which accounts for around 72% of LTI’s total revenue. With FUM at LTL continuing to decline, further pressure on LTI’s dividend appears likely. For 2025, the dividend was £42 per share, down 18.4% on 2024. Further declines in LTL’s FUM could impact LTI’s future dividend, unless the board decides to draw upon revenue reserves, which appears unlikely.
Previous publications
To read our previous notes on LTI – click on the links below or visit our website.
Figure 18: Previous publications
| Title | Note type | Publication date |
|---|---|---|
| Form is temporary, class is permanent | Initiation | 13 March 2025 |
| Durability in times of volatility | Update | 24 September 2025 |
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