Murray Income Trust (MUT) announced its annual results for the year ended June 30 2023 which also marked the 100th anniversary for the fund. NAV per share total return was +8.8%, ahead of the FTSE All-Share Index at +7.9% but the share price total return was +4.9% as the discount widened to 8.4% at the last close. Total dividends per share increased by 4.2% to 37.5p, the 50th consecutive year of dividend growth.
The investment manager commenting on the background for the year added:
“For the UK economy, the year to 30 June 2023 (“the Year”) has been characterised by high levels of inflation, monetary policy tightening and concerns around a potential recession. Equity markets have generally been more robust than might have been expected against this backdrop. The UK equity market ended the year +7.9% higher on a total return basis, although with the path to that level less than smooth. In September 2022, it was UK politics that influenced domestic market performance. The new Chancellor Kwarteng’s “mini budget” sparked a wave of selling of UK gilts and a substantial weakening of the pound which led to the Bank of England (“BoE”) stepping in with emergency measures to stabilise markets. UK government bond prices rose and the pound recovered somewhat as first Chancellor Kwarteng and then Prime Minister Truss resigned and many of their previously announced tax cut proposals were reversed. Then, in March 2023, the banking sector created volatility, first in the US when Silicon Valley Bank collapsed and later in the month when concerns grew over the viability of Credit Suisse which was ultimately acquired by UBS.
“Less transitory than these events have been the persistently high level of inflation and the ongoing response from central banks. UK inflation, as measured by the Consumer Prices Index, reached 11.1% in October, the highest level in more than four decades. Annual inflation fell below 10% for the first time since the summer of 2022 in April when the reading was 8.7%, but data for May showed that core inflation, which excludes volatile fuel and unprocessed food costs, continued to rise. The BoE acted to control inflation by raising interest rates multiple times over the period, with the policy rate increasing from 1.25% at the start of the Year to 4.5% by the end of June 2023. After the year end, the BoE subsequently surprised markets by hiking a further 0.5% in July, and then again by an additional 0.25% in August, as inflation exceeded expectations, although maintaining their forecast that inflation will fall rapidly in the second half of 2023.
“Despite rising interest rates, the UK has so far avoided a technical recession (defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth in real GDP) and updated forecasts at the start of the calendar year from the UK’s Office for Budget Responsibility showed they now expect the country to avoid a recession in 2023. Economic data for the UK has been mixed over the period. GDP fell by -0.3% in the quarter to September, followed by 0.1% increases in the subsequent quarters to December and March. Purchasing Managers’ Index data continued to show the Services sector performing better than Manufacturing. Labour markets have remained tight and there was widespread strike action across multiple sectors. Consumer confidence was reported to be at its lowest level since records began in 1974, albeit retail sales remained relatively robust.
“This picture of high inflation and interest rate rises is generally consistent across other developed markets. Compared to the UK, inflation has softened more in the US and the Eurozone in recent months and our view is that we are nearing the end of hiking cycles in those economies. In the US, although growth has so far fared better than anticipated in the face of rate tightening and banking sector concerns, we continue to forecast negative GDP growth in 2024. China moved away from their zero-covid policy in the final quarter of 2022. The policy change initially led to a rise in covid cases which weighed on growth, followed by a benefit to activity from the reopening of the economy. However, the reopening tailwind faded quicker than had been widely expected, which prompted the government in Beijing to introduce new measures intended to stimulate the economy. Oil and other commodity prices declined over the Year over fears of weakening demand. European gas prices fell sharply from the mid-2022 highs reached following the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
“Global equity markets performed well over the Year, with the MSCI World Index returning 19.2% over the period on a total return basis in US dollar terms. In the UK, the FTSE All-Share index (the Company’s “Benchmark”) lagged global markets, rising by 7.9% with the FTSE 100 Index which has more international exposure increasing by 8.9% and outperforming the 3.0% rise in the FTSE 250 Index which has more domestic exposure. From a factor perspective, broadly-speaking ‘Value’ and ‘Momentum’ outperformed while ‘Quality’ and ‘Growth’ stocks underperformed on a relative basis.
“Although a relatively small sector, the technology sector performed strongly over the year mostly for individual stock specific reasons. On the other hand the weakest performance was seen in the telecoms sector as its main constituents BT and Vodafone struggled operationally. In a broad reversal of the prior year’s performance, some of the more defensive areas of the market such as healthcare and consumer staples underperformed while perhaps surprisingly a number of the more cyclical, economically-sensitive areas of the market such as consumer discretionary and industrials outperformed.”
Commenting on the outlook, they continued:
“Recent data points provide a less than clear picture around current conditions and future direction. However, in most developed economies growth appears to be more robust than might be expected in light of the meaningful monetary policy tightening over the past 12 months. On the other hand, the momentum of China’s reopening has faded and more stimulus is likely to feature. Underlying price pressures have been sticky reflecting excess demand across various sectors and economies prompting central banks to remain hawkish. We believe that the current tightening cycle will ultimately restrict economic growth with the resulting downturn in demand helping to engineer a relatively rapid fall in inflationary pressures allowing significant interest rate cuts over the next 18 months.
“The portfolio is jam-packed with high quality, predominantly global businesses capable of delivering appealing long term earnings and dividend growth at a modest aggregate valuation. Our focus on quality companies should provide protection through a downturn: those companies with pricing power, high margins and strong balance sheets are better placed to navigate a more challenging economic environment and emerge in a strong position. Furthermore, these quality characteristics are helpful in underpinning the portfolio’s income generation.
“The valuations of UK-listed companies remain attractive on a relative and absolute basis. Apart from the global financial crisis, the UK’s market multiple is nearing its lowest point for 30 years. It is cheap in absolute terms, relative to history and also relative to global equities. Investors are benefitting from global income at a knock-down price. Moreover, the dividend yield of the UK market remains at an appealing premium to other regional equity markets. In summary, we feel optimistic that our long-term focus on investments in high quality companies with robust competitive positions and strong balance sheets, which are led by experienced management teams will be capable of delivering premium earnings and dividend growth.”
MUT : Solid year for Murray in the face of macro volatility