Fund profile

More information is available on the trust’s website investors.seraphim.vc

SSIT aims to generate capital growth over the long term through investment in a diversified international portfolio of predominantly growth-stage (B-stage or later), privately financed SpaceTech businesses (which SSIT defines as entities that rely on space-based connectivity and/or precision, navigation, and timing signals or whose technology or services are already addressing, originally derived from, or potentially benefiting, the space sector).

SSIT’s portfolio companies are typically category leaders with the potential to scale globally. They frequently benefit from first-mover advantages across areas such as global security, cybersecurity, food security, climate change and sustainability.

SSIT was launched in July 2021, hitting its capital raise target, and started life with cash of about £178.4m. Total assets at the end of December 2025 were £337.5m.

SSIT’s AIFM is Seraphim Space Manager LLP (Seraphim).

Measuring success

SSIT is targeting annualised NAV returns of 20% over the long term. The trust has no formal index benchmark but given the subject matter of this note we have compared it with the MSCI World Aerospace and Defence Index for simplicity’s sake.

Successful C share issue provides fresh firepower

SSIT’s C share raised c.£137m of gross proceeds.

In our last note, we highlighted that SSIT’s board had published a circular outlining details of a potential C share offering that could raise up to £350m, which was open to both institutional and retail investors. This capital raise completed in May 2026 raising approximately £137m of gross proceeds, with SSIT issuing 136.5m C shares at 100p each to satisfy the issue.

SSIT’s C shares convert periodically

As with all C shares, the new capital is kept in a separate pool while it is deployed, which protects existing ordinary shareholders from the cash drag that would otherwise result from immediately adding the uninvested cash to the portfolio. However, rather than waiting for the majority of the cash to be deployed – typically around 85% – before converting the C shares to ordinary shares and merging the portfolios, portions of the C shares will convert into ordinary shares, with the conversion ratios calculated using the respective quarterly NAVs. This structure allows C share investors to progressively gain exposure to SSIT’s established portfolio as their shares convert, and for existing investors to gain exposure early to any new companies that enter the portfolio as a result of the C share – see Hubble below. Ultimately, all of the C shares must convert within 18 months of issue.

C share deployment is already underway

SSIT has begun to invest the proceeds from its C share issue. In August, SSIT invested a combined £21.3m in existing portfolio companies Pixxel and Zeno Power, followed by a £22.2m investment in Hubble Network (see pages 8 and 9), the first new company added to the portfolio using the C share proceeds. Together, these commitments amount to about £43.5m, or almost a third of the gross proceeds of the fundraise.

The C share raise benefits all shareholders

Increasing SSIT’s size should improve secondary-market liquidity and lower the ongoing charges ratio

As we highlighted in our last note, we think the fundraising is a positive for existing shareholders. Beyond providing SSIT with substantial firepower to exploit the manager’s pipeline of opportunities, increasing the size of the trust should improve secondary-market liquidity and allow fixed costs to be spread across a larger asset base, helping to reduce the ongoing charges ratio. It should also gradually reduce some of the concentration in the existing portfolio – a concern recently highlighted in feedback given to the manager during shareholder engagement activities – as new investments are added.

Taking advantage of the current market backdrop

SpaceTech is passing through a major inflection point

SSIT’s manager believes that SpaceTech is passing through a major inflection point and has identified considerably more attractive opportunities than SSIT’s existing balance sheet could comfortably fund. Through the C share, SSIT has been able to raise a meaningful amount of new equity which gives it the resources to pursue these investments without compromising the interests of existing shareholders. The task now is to deploy that capital well, but the early pace of investment suggests that this is money raised with a clear purpose rather than cash looking for a home.

Seraphim New Space ETF – a new source of demand for SSIT shares

The ETF tracks the VettaFi Seraphim New Space Index

The Seraphim New Space UCITS ETF launched on 2 September 2026. The ETF tracks the Seraphim New Space Index, which was designed by Seraphim. The ETF itself is managed by a third-party manager and distributed by HANetf. This new ETF has two share classes listed on the LSE – a dollar class under the ticker SPCE and a sterling class under the ticker SERA. It also has a dollar class listing on the Borsa Italiana under the ticker SERA and a Euro class listing on Deutsche Börse’s Xetra under the ticker S3RA.

A fixed 10% allocation to SSIT

The Seraphim New Space Index tracks public companies focused on the commercial “new space” economy. Initially containing 23 listed companies, the index is conviction weighted and around half its initial constituents are businesses that Seraphim backed privately before they listed. This gives Seraphim unusually deep knowledge of those companies.

The index currently allocates approximately 10% to SSIT, making it the ETF’s largest holding. This should provide an ongoing pool of demand for SSIT shares as the new ETF grows, with SSIT providing the ETF exposure to earlier stage growth companies through a listed structure.

‘New space’ versus ‘old space’

Seraphim makes an important distinction between the emerging ‘new space’ economy and the traditional ‘old space’ model dominated by large aerospace and traditional defence contractors. Old space was characterised by expensive, bespoke projects, long development cycles, low production volumes and a heavy reliance on government customers. For example, satellites could take years to design and build and were intended to remain operational for decades.

New space companies use low-cost launches, smaller satellites, mass-production techniques and faster technology cycles to reduce costs dramatically

In contrast, new space turns much of the traditional model on its head, using lower-cost launches, smaller satellites, mass-production techniques and faster technology cycles to reduce costs dramatically – for example using standardised components and technologies from other industries – which is opening space up to a much broader range of commercial applications. New space is synonymous with falling launch costs, reusable rockets, smaller satellites, constellations, standardised components, software and private capital.

Different to the traditional ETFs

SSIT’s manager says that the existing space ETFs tend to own around 60 companies and include the traditional large, established aerospace companies such as Lockheed Martin and Airbus. In contrast, its ETF is focused on the new space companies described above, which it expects to be the key beneficiaries of the space 2.0 era. If successful, this could be the beginning of a broader ETF strategy for SSIT’s manager.

Manager’s view

Addressing investor concerns

SSIT’s manager says that a number of issues have been raised during recent investor meetings and its recent investor webinar that it is keen to address. We look at each of these in turn. Otherwise, the manager’s long-term themes remain intact and we recommend readers see our April 2026 note where these are explored in more detail (see page 18 of this note).

ICEYE’s success has created an unusual problem for SSIT

SSIT’s concentration in ICEYE and whether the manager remains comfortable with this: ICEYE’s success has created an unusual problem for SSIT: the better the company performs, the greater the portfolio’s exposure to it becomes. However, the manager remains comfortable with the position. Seraphim believes that ICEYE still has substantial growth ahead of it and does not think that concentration, in itself, is a reason to sell a business whose prospects continue to improve. Mark Boggett, CEO of Seraphim VC, SSIT’s manager, describes ICEYE as SSIT’s first portfolio company to have “popped”: it is the most mature of the trust’s investments and is now benefiting from the commercial and defence opportunities that Seraphim anticipated when it first invested.

Seraphim’s conviction has been tested by real opportunities to realise profits

That conviction has been tested by real opportunities to realise profits. Mark highlights ICEYE’s latest funding round, which included substantial secondary liquidity. SSIT was invited to sell but chose not to, just as it had declined to reduce its position during an earlier funding round. This was despite the fact that crystallising gains would also have brought forward a sizeable performance fee for the manager, but illustrates the potential upside Seraphim sees from continuing to own ICEYE and their view that it outweighs the attractions of taking money off the table today.

ICEYE is just the first portfolio company to have “popped”

Are other portfolio companies capable of developing into businesses of comparable scale to ICEYE and thereby reducing the portfolio’s concentration over time: As highlighted above, Seraphim believes that ICEYE is simply the first portfolio company to have “popped” and it is not a one-off. It argues that other businesses are at an earlier stage but are addressing very large markets and could, in time, become much larger contributors to NAV. The manager highlights Xona Space Systems as an example – it is developing a private GPS network with much stronger signals, centimetre-level accuracy and military-grade security. Further validation has also come through funding rounds at Pixxel and Hubble Network, which offer significant potential in Earth observation and satellite-enabled connectivity respectively. Both attracted significant third-party capital, supporting the manager’s view that a number of SSIT’s holdings are progressing towards substantial future value creation.

Maintaining the ICEYE holding is a major strategic initiative, which has the board’s support

Is SSIT’s board aligned with the manager’s position on ICEYE and the trust’s wider capital allocation: The size of SSIT’s ICEYE position naturally raises a governance question as well as an investment one: is the board comfortable allowing a single holding to become so important to SSIT? Seraphim’s stance on running ICEYE has been consistent for years and is well documented. Mark observes that, while the board’s role is not to select individual investments, it does have responsibility for overseeing risk and capital allocation, and the manager has been subject to continued scrutiny as ICEYE has become an increasingly important part of NAV. He adds that the Board oversees concentration and risk management rather than making stock-selection decisions.

The C share issue has given SSIT the firepower to pursue opportunities that it previously had to pass up

The deployment of the proceeds from the recent C share issue, including the pace of deployment and discipline around valuations: Mark says that the C share issue has given SSIT the firepower to pursue opportunities that it previously had to pass up because of limited cash. Hubble Network (see pages 8 and 9) is a good example: Seraphim VC had invested at an early stage and wanted to participate in a subsequent funding round through the trust but lacked the resources to do so. The new capital has now allowed SSIT to make a meaningful follow-on investment in this company.

Commitments have already exceeded the £40m threshold required for the first C share conversion

Commitments have already exceeded the £40m threshold required for the first C share conversion and so investor concern has shifted from whether the money would be deployed quickly enough to whether it might now be deployed too quickly. However, Seraphim has long said it has a solid pipeline of further investments should it have the capital. One of its advantages is that many of its opportunities are businesses it has followed for years and it has already invested in via the wider Seraphim platform. Obviously, familiarity does not remove the need to maintain price discipline but the test will be whether the C share proceeds are deployed into businesses capable of generating attractive returns from the valuations paid. SSIT’s manager is very confident that they will be.

C share was raised on premise of investing in SpaceTech businesses. This should not be changed after the event.

Rather than deploying the C share proceeds to new investments, should they be used instead for share buybacks: A small number of investors have suggested using the C share proceeds to buy back ordinary shares at a discount, arguing that this would provide an immediate uplift in value. Mark takes a more fundamental view: the capital was raised specifically to invest in SpaceTech businesses, not to buy back SSIT shares, and he does not believe it would be appropriate to change that purpose after the event. This does not rule out buybacks as a future discount-control tool, but that is a separate issue from how the C share proceeds should be used. We agree with this view.

It remains difficult to reconcile the discount with the improving fundamentals in the portfolio

Why is SSIT trading at a discount and what could help close it: Mark says that the discount remains difficult to reconcile with the improving fundamentals in the portfolio – a view that we share. Part of the explanation is likely to be the combination of private assets, volatility, concentration in ICEYE, the relative immaturity of space as an investment theme and possibly that the NAV has run ahead very quickly. Better communication should help, as should evidence that other holdings can follow ICEYE’s path. As discussed above, Seraphim’s New Space ETF, in which SSIT is the largest holding, is a potentially important new source of demand that could broaden the shareholder base and help narrow the discount.

With SSIT, investors gain exposure to a diversified portfolio spanning a range of space-based activities

Why should investors own SSIT rather than seeking direct exposure to individual space businesses such as SpaceX: SSIT offers something quite different from direct exposure to SpaceX. Rather than backing a single company, investors gain exposure to a diversified portfolio spanning Earth observation, communications, positioning, defence and commercial applications, including businesses that are not available on public markets.

There is also an active management advantage. Seraphim uses its accelerator and venture activities to identify companies early, build knowledge and conviction, and then scale exposure as they mature. As noted above, Xona is a good example of this model in action. SpaceX is the biggest name in the space currently but SSIT is more about finding the next generation of major space businesses.

Growing investor conviction in space as an investment theme: Investor conviction in space as a long-term investment theme appears to be strengthening. The sector is fast-growing, increasingly commercial and difficult to access through conventional public markets. Falling launch and satellite costs are enabling entirely new business models, much as the internet once enabled companies that could not previously have existed.

Mark Boggett says “we are just scratching the surface of SSIT’s NAV growth potential”

Mark is very clear on what he believes is the growth outlook for dual use SpaceTech and, therefore, SSIT. Despite the recent strong gains, we are just scratching the surface of SSIT’s NAV growth potential. ICEYE may be leading the pack currently, but Mark believes that all of SSIT’s portfolio companies have the potential to follow a similar growth trajectory and expects to see quarter-on-quarter NAV growth through the remainder of this year and next.

Asset allocation

At 31 March 2026, SSIT held 24 direct investments – 23 portfolio companies plus an investment in another fund – with a total fair value of £433.3m, up from £331.6m as at 31 December 2025, due overwhelmingly to valuation gains. The portfolio remains concentrated, with the top 10 holdings accounting for 98.1% of NAV as at 31 March 2026, compared with 91.9% at 31 December 2025, which will have increased further with the latest valuation uplift for ICEYE (see below). The deployment of the C share proceeds and subsequent conversion to ordinary shares (the first conversion will happen at the end of September) will help to offset this. Nonetheless, SSIT continues to provide exposure across a broad spread of SpaceTech subsectors.

SSIT’s manager reiterates that the portfolio is focused on companies that are at the top of their field, which have strong growth potential. The manager does not take a broad-brush approach. Instead, SSIT’s investments are carefully chosen for their quality and leadership. It adds that, while the portfolio remains highly concentrated at the individual holding level, it retains meaningful diversification across SpaceTech subsectors and geographies.

Platform businesses continue to dominate the portfolio, which reflects a deliberate focus by SSIT’s manager on companies building constellations or space-based infrastructure that have strong operating leverage – for example, ICEYE’s SAR constellation and Xona’s emerging LEO PNT (position and timing) network.

Figure 1: SSIT portfolio by sub-sector as at 31 December 2025

Figure 2: SSIT portfolio by geography as at 31 December 2025

Recent investment and exit activity

£21.3m of C share proceeds invested in follow-ons

SSIT committed £0.7m to a follow-on investment in ALL.SPACE during the quarter end 31 March 2026. As highlighted on page 3, August saw initial investments for the C share portfolio – £21.3m in existing portfolio companies Pixxel and Zeno Power, followed by a £22.2m investment in Hubble Network, discussed below.

Hubble Network – bringing Bluetooth connectivity to space

£22.2m of C share proceeds invested in new holding, Hubble Network

Hubble Network (hubble.com) is the first all new investment in SSIT to be made using the C share proceeds and, in our view, is a good illustration of the scale of the opportunity emerging in new space. The company was founded by the entrepreneurs behind Life360, which also owns Bluetooth tracking specialist Tile. Their experience with Tile highlighted one of Bluetooth’s main limitations – its short range – which they decided to solve.

Work to extend that range eventually demonstrated that Bluetooth signals could be detected over miles and, following testing using a weather balloon, from the edge of space. This has important implications for the internet of things. Conventional satellite tracking equipment is relatively expensive and power hungry, making it uneconomic to monitor lower-value goods or requiring regular battery replacement. Bluetooth, in comparison, is cheap, lightweight and has low power consumption, opening up a huge array of possibilities.

One application is to combine its network with inexpensive smart labels that include an inexpensive Bluetooth device. These can be attached to individual items, allowing businesses to track goods throughout their journey through a supply chain. Other potential uses include military equipment and inventories, individual parcels, industrial assets, consumer products and agricultural goods.

Hubble is building a satellite network for its service

Hubble’s aim is to enable low-cost, low-power devices to connect directly to satellites using Bluetooth and it is now building a satellite network to provide this service. It currently has seven satellites in orbit and plans to deploy a much larger constellation. Seraphim believes that this gives Hubble one of the largest addressable markets it has encountered. Importantly, the underlying technology has already been demonstrated. The key challenge is now execution: expanding the constellation, attracting customers and scaling the network.

Hubble also demonstrates Seraphim’s venture-to-growth approach. Seraphim first invested at seed stage, giving it time to build its knowledge of the founders, technology and market before increasing exposure through SSIT as the business matured and its conviction increased. SSIT was unable to participate meaningfully in Hubble’s previous funding round because it lacked available cash but was able to increase its exposure substantially in the latest round thanks to the C share.

Portfolio cash runway and SSIT cash burn

Figures 3 and 4 show SSIT’s portfolio funding requirements to reach cash-flow break-even, by fair value and number of companies respectively, as at 31 December 2025 (this being the most recently available information). The analysis is based on portfolio companies’ latest management projections at that date.

Figure 3: SSIT portfolio by funding duration as at 31 December 2025 (fair value)

Figure 4: SSIT portfolio by funding duration at 31 December 2025 (number of co.s)

SSIT says that at 31 March 2026, 86% of its portfolio by fair value had a robust cash runway, with 73% fully funded and a further 13% funded for 12 months or more. As at 31 March 2026, the company had £20.9m of cash reserves (31 December 2025: £22.1m), with a potential £4.1m of additional liquidity from its remaining three holdings in listed companies (equivalent to 1.0% of the ordinary share NAV).

As we have discussed in previous notes, SSIT is considered in its spend – for example, follow-on investments are very targeted – which helps mitigate the funding risk associated with its portfolio. However, as discussed on page 3, the C share issue gives it significant firepower to deploy in both new and existing investments.

Maturity profile

SSIT is a growth capital fund and, as such, its portfolio is skewed towards businesses that have progressed beyond the seed and Series A stages. It invests in more mature companies that have already commercialised, or are in the process of commercialising, their products and are moving towards profitability.

In effect, SSIT piggybacks on Seraphim’s venture capital arm to filter out companies that carry significant execution risk and are typically at the earliest point in their commercial development, such as start-ups. In practice, SSIT’s investments are concentrated in the later stages of the funding cycle, with around 70% deployed in Series C or Series D rounds – usually the final stages of private funding prior to a potential IPO.

Top holdings

Figure 5 shows SSIT’s top 10 holdings as at 31 March 2026 and how these have changed since 31 December 2025 – this being the most recently available data when we last published.

Figure 5: SSIT 10-largest holdings as at 31 March 2026

All of the holdings shown in Figure 5 were constituents of SSIT’s top 10 when we last published and there have only been some small adjustments to the rankings, although there have been some significant uplifts in valuations, with ICEYE and Xona Space Systems standing out in particular – updates are provided below. As discussed in the performance section, HawkEye 360 completed its IPO and listed on Nasdaq. Further discussion on all of SSIT’s holdings can be found in our previous notes – see page 18 of this note.

ICEYE – completion of series F financing round has added 73p to SSIT’s NAV

Seraphim chose not to sell any ICEYE shares as part of the financing, reflecting its conviction in its growth prospects.

ICEYE (iceye.com) continues to gather momentum and remains SSIT’s largest holding. Its €1bn Series F financing round – comprising €450m of new capital and €550m of secondary liquidity – has now completed following regulatory approvals, crystallising a substantial valuation uplift for SSIT. The new valuation implies an increase of around £202m, or 102%, in the fair value of SSIT’s holding and an uplift of approximately 73p per ordinary share relative to the 31 March 2026 NAV. This will be reflected in the 30 September 2026 NAV and will also feed into the first partial conversion of the C shares.

Importantly, Seraphim chose not to sell any ICEYE shares as part of the financing, despite the availability of secondary liquidity. As highlighted in the manager’s view section, SSIT’s manager says that this reflects its continued conviction that ICEYE has significant further growth ahead and remains on a robust path towards an eventual IPO.

Xona Space Systems – secured regulatory approval to use GPS spectrum

Xona has raised around $200m and is preparing to build out its initial constellation.

Xona Space Systems (xonaspace.com) has secured FCC regulatory approval to use GPS spectrum, which SSIT’s manager views as a major milestone. The company is developing a commercial LEO positioning, navigation and timing network that is designed to complement existing GPS infrastructure. This network offers much stronger signals, centimetre-level accuracy and military-grade security.

The company has already demonstrated the technology in orbit, raised around $200m and is preparing to build out its initial constellation. Seraphim believes Xona could develop into a very substantial business, describing its opportunity as potentially analogous to a “GPS equivalent of Starlink”.

Performance

Q3 FY26

As of 31 March 2026, SSIT reported a total NAV of £421.3m (177.63p per share), representing a 24.8% increase from the £337.5m (142.3p per share) NAV reported at 31 December 2025. It is also an increase of 49.9% over the first three quarters of the year ended 30 June 2026 (total NAV as at 30 June 2025 was £281.1m or 118.52p per share). Details of performance for the first half of FY26 can be found in our last note.

As was the case when we last published, the largest contributor to this growth was unrealised fair value gains within its portfolio – £95.5m or 40.3p per share – which was largely due to strong performance of ICEYE, funding rounds at Xona Space Systems and Tomorrow.io and the HawkEye 360 indicative IPO pricing, all supported by defence and geopolitical trends. There was also a £5.5m FX gain and £0.7m of acquisitions.

Material valuation increase in the value of ICEYE

As discussed on page 11, ICEYE completed its Series F financing, including the receipt of the necessary regulatory approvals, which has crystallised a significant valuation uplift for SSIT’s NAV of 73p per share. Given the timing of the transaction, this falls into the first quarter of the current financial year (the year ending 30 June 2027). This not only gets the current year off to a very good start but adds further evidence to support Mark Boggett’s view that SSIT will continue to see quarter-on-quarter NAV growth for the current year and beyond (see below).

HawkEye 360 – potential to re-rate as sentiment improves

Figure 6: HawkEye 360 share price (USD)

HawkEye 360 (www.he360.com) completed its IPO on the New York Stock Exchange in May 2026, pricing at $26 per share, the top of its indicated range. The company issued 16m new shares, raising $416m of gross proceeds and implying a post-IPO equity valuation of approximately $2.84bn. This represented a 38% increase in HawkEye 360’s enterprise value, net of the IPO proceeds, compared with the valuation used by SSIT at 31 December 2025. SSIT held 2.43m HawkEye 360 shares at the time of the flotation, giving its stake an implied value of approximately $63.2m at the IPO price. Its holding is subject to a six-month lock-up following the IPO.

HawkEye 360’s shares opened at $33.80, comfortably above the $26 offer price but, following the initial surge in interest post IPO, HawkEye 360’s share price has retrenched (it is trading at $14.99 at the time of writing and we have included the impact of this movement in our own live estimate of SSIT’s NAV). This is despite the company continuing to perform well from an operational perspective.

The company’s Q2 results saw revenue rise 87% year-on-year to $49.8m, international revenue increase 134% and an order backlog that stood at $292.2m. While, HawkEye 360 reported a $15.3m net loss and adjusted EBITDA slipped to $7.0m from $7.8m a year earlier, international revenue was up 134% year-on-year to $21m, operating cash flow was up 152% to $11.6m and free cash flow was $5.4m, up from a deficit of $1.3m for the prior year.

Derating appears to be a market sentiment issue rather than a fundamental deterioration in the business.

SSIT’s manager agrees that HawkEye 360 continues to perform well – noting, for example, that revenue growth, order backlog and contract momentum all remain robust. It views recent share price weakness as a short-term market sentiment issue, rather than any obvious deterioration in trading, and believes that the company could see an improvement as it continues to deliver and profitability improves.

HawkEye 360 is seeing accelerating demand for its RF signals-intelligence offering, particularly from defence, intelligence and allied-government customers. It should also benefit from its forthcoming constellation expansion through Clusters 15 and 16 and the first Block 3 Kestrel satellites, alongside benefits from integrating Innovative Signal Analysis’s algorithms. The company has just announced $18m in Middle East contract awards.

ALL.SPACE

Figure 7: ALL.SPACE share price (USD)

ALL.SPACE was acquired by York Space Systems (www.yorkspacesystems.com) with effect from 8 July 2026, with SSIT receiving US$17.9m in cash (£13.4m) and 1.24m in York shares. As part of the transaction, SSIT could receive up to a further $8.1m through escrow and holdbacks, pending various potential post completion adjustments. The deal followed a period of significant valuation increases for ALL.SPACE, with SSIT marking the holding up from £30m at 30 September 2025 to £54m at the end of December and £57.4m (13.6% of NAV) at 31 March 2026 as corporate activity around the business progressed.

For SSIT, however, the value ultimately realised was affected by the performance of York’s shares. At York’s share price on completion, the initial consideration was worth about £34.7m, potentially rising to around £40.7m if all deferred amounts are received, below ALL.SPACE’s March carrying value. This shortfall largely reflects the weakness in York’s listed share price rather than a deterioration in the agreed transaction value, and SSIT retains exposure to any recovery through the shares it received. We have included the impact of this movement in our own live estimate of SSIT’s NAV.

Further NAV growth expected

As we have highlighted previously, SSIT’s manager continues to view the changes we have seen in defence and geopolitical trends as significant long-term tailwinds. As we explored in our last note, Mark Boggett, Seraphim VC’s CEO, said that he expected to see these tailwinds drive quarter-on-quarter NAV growth during this year and beyond, as recent contracts convert to revenue growth for portfolio companies and further contracts are signed.

Figure 8: SSIT performance from launch to 30 September 2026¹

In our recent notes, we commented that, given SSIT benefits from the same tailwinds that have been driving defence stocks, the performance gap between MSCI World Aerospace and Defence Index and SSIT’s share price did not look sustainable. Since this time, the gap has narrowed but we continue to believe that SSIT has strong catch-up potential. We would remind readers that SSIT’s manager believes that approximately 70% of its portfolio has defence applications, and that its investee companies continue to demonstrate growing profitability – 85% of the portfolio is expected to be EBITDA profitable this year.

Figure 9: SSIT performance over periods ended 30 September 2026

Premium/(discount)

As we discussed in our last note, and is illustrated in Figure 10, SSIT has seen a significant improvement in its rating since April last year, and particularly since December. To recap, significantly greater geopolitical tensions – in particular, the uncertainty around US commitments to the NATO alliance and their support for Ukraine – has seen European nations and other non-US NATO allies rapidly rethink their security arrangements. As a result, they are investing heavily to bolster their defences.

The ongoing conflict in Ukraine continues to highlight both the dual uses of SpaceTech, and its critical nature in defence

At the same time, the ongoing conflict in Ukraine continues to highlight both the dual uses of SpaceTech, and its critical nature in defence. This has also been reflected in hostilities elsewhere, for example in the conflict between Iran, US, and Israel. We maintain our view that, even if current hostilities subside, the current weaknesses in global defence infrastructure and alliances have been exposed and the greater impetus to rearm will not go away.

The recognition of SpaceTech’s importance in defence by the market was a major factor in SSIT’s discount to NAV narrowing from c50% 18 months ago to the mid-20s premium seen prior to the announcement of plans to issue the C share in April (which we covered in our last note). The C share has helped to satisfy some pent-up demand, which is likely why SSIT’s premium subsequently narrowed. Concentration risk due to the success of ICEYE in particular may be another factor as well as the fact that the NAV has moved as quickly as it has.

However, given the significant valuation gains that have been achieved since SSIT’s NAV was last published (as at 31 March 2026), we have built our own live estimate of SSIT’s NAV, which adjusts for: the impact of the HawkEye 360 IPO; the purchase ALL.SPACE by York Space Systems and its payment in part cash and York Space System Shares; and the recent completion of ICEYE’s series F funding round. This NAV has been used for the charts and tables throughout this report including Figure 10.

SSIT’s discount narrowing has disconnected from its wider growth capital peer group

Using this live estimate, over the last 12 months, SSIT’s shares have traded within a range between a 44.6% discount to NAV to a 49.4% premium to NAV, averaging at a 13.5% discount. On 2 October 2026, SSIT was trading at a 12.4% discount. In contrast, the growth capital peer group average discount ranged between 35.0% and a 10.7% discount, and has averaged 23.8%. As at 2 October 2026, the peer group average discount was 21.4%.

We think the current discount represents an opportunity given the clear long term structural growth drivers for SpaceTech, and the potential for further NAV growth to come through. In addition, the launch of the Seraphim New Space UCITS ETF which, with its 10% allocation to SSIT, should be a structural source of demand for SSIT’s shares while the ETF is growing (the reverse is also true).

Figure 10: SSIT premium/(discount) since 30 September 2021¹

Previous publications

Figure 11: QuotedData’s previously published notes on SSIT

SWOT analysis

Figure 12: SWOT analysis for SSIT

Bull vs. bear case

Figure 13: Bull vs. bear case for SSIT

IMPORTANT INFORMATION

This marketing communication has been prepared for Seraphim Space Investment Trust Plc by Marten & Co, which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA). It constitutes non-independent research as defined under the UK MiFID II regime and the onshored Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2017/565.

This communication is intended for use by investment professionals as defined in Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005.

Marten & Co is not authorised to provide advice to retail clients. Accordingly, if you are not a professional investor, or are otherwise restricted from receiving this information, you should disregard it.

Charts and data are sourced from Bloomberg unless otherwise stated. Please read the important information at the back of this document. The note does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it.

The note has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. The analysts who prepared this note are not constrained from dealing ahead of it, but in practice, and in accordance with our internal code of good conduct, will refrain from doing so for the period from which they first obtained the information necessary to prepare the note until one month after the note’s publication. Nevertheless, they may have an interest in any of the securities mentioned within this note.

This note has been compiled from publicly available information. This note is not directed at any person in any jurisdiction where (by reason of that person’s nationality, residence or otherwise) the publication or availability of this note is prohibited.

Accuracy of Content: Whilst Marten & Co uses reasonable efforts to obtain information from sources which we believe to be reliable and to ensure that the information in this note is up to date and accurate, we make no representation or warranty that the information contained in this note is accurate, reliable or complete. The information contained in this note is provided by Marten & Co for personal use and information purposes generally. You are solely liable for any use you may make of this information. The information is inherently subject to change without notice and may become outdated. You, therefore, should verify any information obtained from this note before you use it.

No Advice: Nothing contained in this note constitutes or should be construed to constitute investment, legal, tax or other advice.

No Representation or Warranty: No representation, warranty or guarantee of any kind, express or implied is given by Marten & Co in respect of any information contained on this note.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Marten & Co shall not be liable for any direct or indirect losses, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note. In no circumstance shall Marten & Co and its employees have any liability for consequential or special damages.

Governing Law and Jurisdiction: These terms and conditions and all matters connected with them, are governed by the laws of England and Wales and shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction of the English courts. If you access this note from outside the UK, you are responsible for ensuring compliance with any local laws relating to access.

No information contained in this note shall form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any offer or commitment whatsoever in any jurisdiction.

Investment Performance Information: Please remember that past performance is not necessarily a guide to the future and that the value of shares and the income from them can go down as well as up. Exchange rates may also cause the value of underlying overseas investments to go down as well as up. Marten & Co may write on companies that use gearing in a number of forms that can increase volatility and, in some cases, to a complete loss of an investment.